Clarifying a problem before acting, spotting cognitive biases and the fallacies that quietly distort reasoning, deciding under uncertainty, judging an outcome without confusing luck with process quality, deciding as a manager — 9 decks to turn decision theory into reflexes you can use when it counts.
From framing a problem to real-world managerial decisions. A progressive path to decide with more rigour, without losing speed.
Tell the real problem apart from its symptoms, frame the actual question you're answering, and catch decisions made before the situation was properly scoped.
View deck →Organize complex reasoning into explicit steps: break down a problem, rank the criteria that matter, and reach a conclusion that follows from evidence rather than gut feeling alone.
View deck →The biases that quietly distort otherwise rigorous judgment: confirmation bias, anchoring, overconfidence, loss aversion and groupthink.
View deck →Spot the flaws in an argument before trusting it: straw man, false dilemma, slippery slope, appeal to authority — and the difference between correlation and causation.
View deck →Deciding when information is incomplete or shifting mid-course: reasoning in probabilities, telling risk apart from uncertainty, and avoiding decision paralysis.
View deck →Choosing between options that are all imperfect: prioritising without waiting for the ideal solution, and owning an explicit trade-off rather than a default choice.
View deck →Don't confuse a good decision with a good outcome: evaluate a decision process independently of what chance produced afterwards.
View deck →Introductory deck: the basic reflexes for deciding with more clarity in everyday choices, before tackling complex professional situations.
View deck →Decisions specific to a management role: deciding with incomplete information relayed by the team, arbitrating between conflicting priorities, and owning an unpopular call.
View deck →Knowing about cognitive biases isn't enough to avoid them: even the researchers who documented them remain subject to their own biases. What practice changes is how quickly you recognise them in a real situation — a meeting, a negotiation, a hiring decision — before they quietly shape the outcome.
This guide draws on Kahneman's work on judgment heuristics, on the mental models popularised by Charlie Munger, and on critical thinking applied to evaluating an argument. Rather than presenting the theory, each deck trains one precise reflex: clarifying a problem before answering it, spotting a fallacy in a line of reasoning, or picking the right trade-off when no option is perfect.
Rationality isn't a personality trait you either have or don't: it's a set of reflexes you train, like any other skill. The FSRS algorithm schedules reviews at the optimal moment to turn this knowledge into a tool you can use when deciding, not just theory you read once.
Start with 'Problem Solving Frameworks' and 'Structured Thinking': most bad decisions come from a poorly framed problem, not from a bad choice among the options considered.
The Cognitive Biases, Logical Fallacies, Uncertainty and Trade-offs decks train real-situation detection. The FSRS algorithm schedules your reviews to target the concepts still fragile in your memory.
Decision Quality vs Outcome Quality teaches you to judge a choice without confusing a good decision with a lucky break. Making Decisions as a Manager transposes all of it to team situations.
All four, but operationally rather than as an encyclopaedia. Cognitive biases and judgment heuristics are covered by the Cognitive Biases and Decision Making Under Uncertainty decks; critical thinking by Logical Fallacies; mental models by Structured Thinking and Trade-offs. This guide trains decision-making reflexes, not a theoretical catalogue of concepts.
The article dives deep into two specific biases (sunk cost, groupthink) with their academic sources and a detailed managerial case study. This guide covers broader ground: clarifying a problem, weighing trade-offs, deciding under uncertainty, judging an outcome — decision-making as a whole, not one bias in particular. The article is a natural entry point into this guide.
No. Eight of the nine decks apply to any decision, professional or personal. Only 'Making Decisions as a Manager' specifically targets team-leadership situations — arbitrating between team priorities, deciding with incomplete information relayed by direct reports.
Recommended order: Problem Solving Frameworks → Structured Thinking → Cognitive Biases → Logical Fallacies → Decision Making Under Uncertainty → Trade-offs → Decision Quality vs Outcome Quality → Better Everyday Decisions → Making Decisions as a Manager. The first two frame your thinking, the next four train pitfall detection, the last three consolidate and apply.
Knowledge alone doesn't eliminate a bias, but it significantly improves detection. Spaced repetition keeps that knowledge active — right when it's useful — rather than theoretical and quickly forgotten after a one-off reading or training session.
30 cards to lay the groundwork for a well-framed decision, before tackling biases and trade-offs.
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